Origin Story
Forecasting with collective intelligence
almanis is a forecasting platform developed by Dysrupt Labs that is an input to proprietary trading and asset management.
Over 15 years in the development of the almanis human-machine hybrid forecasting mechanism, it has been independently scientifically validated as enhancing expert forecasters' performance in the DARPA-funded NG2S program.
The company was founded in 2008 by Karl Mattingly and Steve Markscheid, two veteran international bankers inspired by the 2008 financial crisis to create a better way to predict events and generate alpha, specifically by using the real-time microstructure of private markets to anticipate changes in consensus forecasts.
The Dysrupt team (the parent company of Almanis) met many clever and interesting people who were also focused on finding something earlier and more reliable than a group forecast. This meant they inevitably became interested in prediction markets and worked with Robin Hanson at George Mason University and the IARPA ACE project, from which Phillip Tetlock wrote the book "Superforecasters". The culmination of this work is a superior human-machine hybrid forecasting mechanism that facilitates earlier discovery of consensus-changing information.
The almanis team continues to work on improving world best practice forecasting with collective intelligence. They believe that expert groups can win with better tools for making their forecasts.