Forecasters guide to almanis prediction market.
[Read in conjunction with terms and conditions.]
How does almanis work?
[Forecasters' Guide : video 2 minutes]
almanis is a specialist publisher and proven new generation prediction market with unique forecasts in geopolitics, macroeconomics and financial markets. They can help you unlock alpha or manage risk.
almanis has two value propositions:
Our forecasters - are rewarded for their forecasting merit.
Our subscribers - get private forecasts that are accurate informed dissent.
Our forecasters make predictions. The more accurate their forecasts, the more points they receive. At the end of each month, our top-performing forecasters receive paid cash rewards while paying no money to participate.
We combine our expert forecasting panel’s predictions with our unique methodology and proprietary machine learning.
This creates our better forecasts: private accurate dissent.
People also use panels from within their own organisations to get private accurate informed dissent in geopolitics, macro and financial markets.
People buy the better forecasts. Our forecasters make money, our subscribers make money, we make money.
almanis points
Every forecaster starts with 1,000 points to manage by investing in forecasts on questions.
If your forecast is right, then you will get back points (with a bonus) when the questions settle. If it is wrong, then you won’t get any points back. You can also close out your forecast before the question settles if you wish.
Your forecast is ‘right’ if you adjust the crowd forecast in the right direction. Hence if the crowd is saying 20% likely, and you forecast ‘more likely’, then you will be right if the question settles as ‘Yes’ even if your forecast doesn’t push the crowd forecast above 50%.
The amount of points you get back is defined by the logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR). Basically, you get a better return if you are earliest to forecast in the direction of a correct result. If you are merely endorsing an already strong current crowd forecast then your percentage return will be smaller.
How many points should you invest? This is up to you, and depends on how many points you have available to invest, how confident you are in your opinion, as well as the size of the opportunity you perceive.
We recommend you start by investing a standard ten points, however you may choose to select your investment amount. This will vary your potential return and impact the current crowd forecast.
How do you gain or lose points?
You gain or lose points depending on the quality of your forecasting. If you have moved the crowd towards the eventual outcome you will win points, but if you have moved it in the wrong direction, thereby decreasing the accuracy of the group, you will lose points.
When you make a forecast you will be told how many points you stand to gain if you remain in the question through to settlement, assuming you have moved the crowd in the right direction.
Making a forecast
Yes/No questions
Look at the current crowd forecast and decide if you think it is more or less likely to happen.
Decide how many points you are willing to invest, out of the three investment options (10, 30 or 50 points).
Multichoice questions
Select the option you want to forecast on from the drop-down menu.
Look at the current forecast for that option and decide if you think it is more or less likely to happen.
Decide how many points you are willing to invest in the outcome.
You can stay on the page and forecast on the other options if you wish.
If you forecast against an option, your investment is spread across all the other options so as to deliver an equal return. Note that depending on the number of other options and their current forecast values, you might get back fewer points than you put in.
Range questions
Set the range you think the number will ultimately fall in - the tighter the range the greater the potential reward.
Decide how many points you are willing to invest out of the three investment options (10, 30, or 50 points).
The points return for any value in your range is determined by the current spread of forecasts.
The minimum return will be for the most popular area in the range. If your range is too wide or contains a very popular area, you may get back fewer points than you invest.
Note that when you specify a range, the lower figure is included, but the upper figure is not. This is done to avoid overlaps at the boundary of user forecasts.
Some questions may have a minimum range specified to avoid concentration of forecasts on discrete values.
Closing out of a forecast
You don’t have to wait until a question settles to win points:
If nobody else has traded on the question in the interim you can close out with no net gain or loss.
If the crowd forecast moves after you made your forecast, then you have the opportunity to close out your position and take some points (called your close-out value). This won’t be as much as if you stayed with the question to the end (return if correct) but will allow you to free up your points and invest in another question.
If the crowd moves in the opposite direction then your potential closeout value may be less than your initial investment. You may still choose to close out in order to minimise your loss.
Investing or losing all your points
You may find that you have invested all your available points. If this is the case, you can either wait until your questions are settled and take your return if correct, or you can close out positions that have positive values, and use these points elsewhere.
If you have wiped out all the points in your managed account, and have played fair, but want to try again, contact support within the almanis App.
almanis competitions
almanis runs regular competitions with cash rewards that are paid out according to your position on the leaderboard at the end of the competition.
Your leaderboard points show your net increase or decrease in points since the start of the competition (which is not necessarily the total points gained/lost in a particular question).
It includes:
points from questions that settled in the current competition
points from positions you closed out in the current competition
plus the current closeout value of any open positions
minus your net position at the start of the competition
Current closeout values will rise or fall as the crowd forecast moves, regardless of whether you make any further forecasts. It is calculated this way so that you don't need to close out your forecasts in order to maximise your performance for the competition.
Our aim is to reward performers for active, positive participation on the site. In order to be eligible for prizes, we require that you abide by the almanis charter.
Playing fair - the almanis charter
We ask that all users on almanis participate in a way that contributes positively to the accuracy of our forecasting, and the quality of our discussions. The goal of our incentives program is to reward users who participate in this manner.
As an 'operator staked prediction market' with open registration we are different to most conventional prediction markets and can be vulnerable to manipulation by users collaborating or operating parallel accounts in order to distort the market or the prize pool. We call this 'money pumping'.
We counter this by monitoring for such behaviour on an ongoing basis and conducting a comprehensive review of all potential winners prior to the allocation of rewards. If we detect any unscrupulous behaviours users may be excluded from the prize pool either temporarily or permanently. This is entirely at our discretion.
This policy is covered in greater detail in our terms and conditions. By participating in almanis you agree to abide by these conditions.
Payment of rewards
almanis pays rewards using PayPal. Your account will only ever be used for inward payments - rest assured we cannot and will not take funds from your account.
If you do not provide a PayPal account address in your user settings, we will instruct PayPal to use the email address that you have registered with almanis. You will then have the opportunity to open a PayPal account under this address or link the email address to an existing PayPal account to receive your payment.
Rewards are paid out once competition activity has been assessed and the competition closed.
PayPal does not allow for payments to be sent to all countries. Unfortunately we do not provide an alternative form of payment if this happens to affect you.