almanis’ guide to using Ask almanis ...
[Read in conjunction with terms and conditions.]
Framing a question …
Making a forecast
Yes/No questions
Look at the current crowd forecast and decide if you think it is more or less likely to happen.
Decide how many points you are willing to invest, out of the three investment options (10, 30 or 50 points).
Multichoice questions
Select the option you want to forecast on from the drop-down menu.
Look at the current forecast for that option and decide if you think it is more or less likely to happen.
Decide how many points you are willing to invest in the outcome.
You can stay on the page and forecast on the other options if you wish.
If you forecast against an option, your investment is spread across all the other options so as to deliver an equal return. Note that depending on the number of other options and their current forecast values, you might get back fewer points than you put in.
Range questions
Set the range you think the number will ultimately fall in - the tighter the range the greater the potential reward.
Decide how many points you are willing to invest out of the three investment options (10, 30, or 50 points).
The points return for any value in your range is determined by the current spread of forecasts.
The minimum return will be for the most popular area in the range. If your range is too wide or contains a very popular area, you may get back fewer points than you invest.
Note that when you specify a range, the lower figure is included, but the upper figure is not. This is done to avoid overlaps at the boundary of user forecasts.
Some questions may have a minimum range specified to avoid concentration of forecasts on discrete values.